YOUTH INITIATIVE HIGH SCHOOL
Waldorf Initiative in Viroqua, Wisconsin, USA
COURSES AND CLASSES
Probability
and Propaganda:
The Art of Persuasion with Statistics
Fall 2006 Grade 10
Teacher: Maureen O’Connor
The focus of this course will be acquiring the tools necessary to objectively evaluate statistical arguments. We will of course learn how to create statistics but will be more concerned with the ability to comprehend their meaning and detect their efficacy and truth. This main lesson block will have three main components: the first is a study of mathematical probabilities; the second is a look at what makes a coherent and logical argument, and the third is an understanding of both descriptive and predictive statistics. Once all three of these topics are covered we shall combine them to evaluate papers that contain statistics.
Probability means figuring the odds of an occurrence. This is often done with games of chance and students will have the opportunity to create their own game of chance or figure out the odds of a common game. We will also concern ourselves with risk assessment as this is a common way that probability influences our everyday life. What are the chances of extraordinary coincidences? What would be an extraordinary coincidence? We will look at pharmaceutical studies that estimate whether a test for a certain disease will be effective. Should more people take the test? Should you take the test? What would be the most cost effective solution for the most people?
Statistics are merely a piece of a logical chain that needs to be evaluated separately from the statistic. Statistics can only be as successful as their surrounding structure. So we will look into the underpinnings of argument. We will study logical fallacies common in persuasive arguments and look into propaganda techniques in particular. Students will have the opportunity to find such examples of propaganda and illogic in print media.
Many statistics are descriptive in nature and although they are therefore simple, many opportunities for misuse still exist. We will learn how simple numbers can turn into extremely misleading statistics. Predictive statistics require more particular circumstances and students will learn the conditions necessary for their use. Students will learn to assess whether a particular statistic is the appropriate choice for the given data and whether it was figured correctly. Students will have their own data sets and need to decide what the proper statistic that accurately portrays their data is.
Students will have three smaller assignments along with the final short paper that is a summary and critical analysis of an article using statistics. There will be class time to work on all the assignments and little reading. I will require students to collect all their work and hand in the totality in a complete form like a main lesson book. Students will require the use of a calculator that has a square root function.
Requirements: (1) Figure out probabilities of game of your choice. (2) Document examples of propaganda techniques in advertising or political writings. (3) Figure statistics for a data set you have found. (4.) Write a summary and review of the logic and statistical use in a serious paper.